Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin,Peru     

Sly C. Wongchuig  Carlos R. Mello  Sin C. Chou 《山地科学学报》2018,15(2):264-279

Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessed the projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, which is important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. We assumed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario and simulated the global climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model simulations by the regional Eta model down to 20-km resolution. The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end of the 21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The Modified Fournier Index (MFI) shows a statistically significant downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, which suggests a possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) shows a statistically significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru.  相似文献   

Latitudinal and temporal shifts in the radial growth-climate response of Siberian larch in the Polar Urals     

Vladimir V. Kukarskih  Nadezhda M. Devi  Pavel A. Moiseev  Andrey A. Grigoriev  Maksim O. Bubnov 《山地科学学报》2018,15(4):722-729

This paper presents a dendroclimatic analysis of Siberian larch trees sampled along a latitudinal 260-km transect located in the Polar Urals,Russia. Three standardised chronologies were built over a length of 230–293 years using 79 individual tree-ring chronologies collected in the southern,middle and northern parts of the Polar Urals.Bootstrapped correlation functions showed that the annual growth of the larches was mainly influenced by the air temperatures in June and July. The relative role of the temperatures increased from south to north. Daily air temperature data analysis revealed that the duration of the growing season in the northern part of the Polar Urals is 24 days less than that in the southern part. At the present time, air temperatures exceeded threshold of 8~℃, 5 days earlier than it did in the beginning of the 20 th century In response to the increase in the duration of the growing season and the changing winter conditions in the Polar Urals over the last 130 years, radial growth–temperature relationships in larches have weakened;this effect was strongly pronounced in the southern part of the Polar Urals.  相似文献   

The Problem of the Height Dependence of Magnetic Fields in Sunspots     

Horst Balthasar 《Solar physics》2018,293(8):120

To understand the physics of sunspots, it is important to know the properties of their magnetic field, and especially its height stratification plays a substantial role. There are mainly two methods to assess this stratification, but they yield different magnetic gradients in the photospheric layers. Determinations based on the several spectral lines of different formation heights and the slope of their profiles result in gradients of ?2 to ?3 G?km^?1, or even steeper. This is similar for the total magnetic field strength and for the vertical component of the magnetic field. The other option is to determine the horizontal partial derivatives of the magnetic field, and with the condition \(\operatorname{div} {{\boldsymbol {B}}} = 0\) also the vertical derivative is known. With this method, gradients of ?0.5 G?km^?1 and even shallower are obtained. Obviously, these results do not agree. If chromospheric spectral lines are included, only shallow gradients around ?0.5 G?km^?1 are obtained. Shallow gradients are also found from gyro-resonance measurements in the radio wave range 300?–?2000 GHz.Some indirect methods are also considered, but they cannot clarify the total picture. An analysis of a numerical simulation of a sunspot indicates a shallow gradient over a wide height range, but with slightly steeper gradients in deep layers.Several ideas to explain the discrepancy are also discussed. With no doubts cast on Maxwell’s equations, the first one is to look at the uncertainties of the formation heights of spectral lines, but a wider range of these heights would require an extension of the solar photosphere that is incompatible with observations and the theory of stellar atmospheres. Submerging and rising magnetic flux might play a role in the outer penumbra, if the resolution is too low to separate them, but it is not likely that this effect acts also in the umbra. A quick investigation assuming a spatial small scale structure of sunspots together with twist and writhe of individual flux tubes shows a reduction of the measured magnetic field strength for spectral lines sensitive to a larger height range. However, sophisticated investigations are required to prove that the explanation for the discrepancy lies here, and the problem of the height gradient of the magnetic field in sunspots is still not solved.  相似文献   

Tradeoff between the number of firefighting resources and the level of fire ignition prevention efforts in the Republic of Korea     

Yohan Lee  Byungdoo Lee 《山地科学学报》2018,15(1):144-155

This study explores the tradeoff relationship between the number of initial attack firefighting resources and the level of fire ignition prevention efforts mitigating the probability of human-made fires in the Republic of Korea, where most fires are caused by human activities. To examine this tradeoff relationship, we develop a hybrid model that combines a robust optimization model with a stochastic simulation model. The robust optimization minimizes the expected number of fires not receiving a pre-defined response, such as the number of firefighting resources that must arrive at the fire within half an hour, subject to budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number and location of fires. The simulation model produces a set of fire scenarios in which a combination of number, location, ignition time, and intensity of fires occur. Results show that fire ignition prevention is as cost-effective as initial attack firefighting resources given the current budget in the Republic of Korea for reducing the expected number of fires not covered by the predefined response. The mixed policy of fire suppression and fire prevention may produce some gains in efficiency relative to the dominant policy of strong fire suppression strategies.  相似文献   

Modeling regional landslide susceptibility using dynamic soil moisture profiles     

Ram L. Ray  Jennifer M. Jacobs  Ellen M. Douglas 《山地科学学报》2018,15(8):1807-1824

A landslide susceptibility mapping study was performed using dynamic hillslope hydrology. The modified infinite slope stability model that directly includes vadose zone soil moisture (SM) was applied at Cleveland Corral, California, US and Krishnabhir, Dhading, Nepal. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) model simulated vadose zone soil moisture and the wetness index hydrologic model simulated groundwater (GW). The GW model predictions had a 75% NASH-Sutcliffe efficiency when compared to California’s in-situ GW measurements. The model performed best during the wet season. Using predicted GW and VIC-3L vadose zone SM, the developed landslide susceptibility maps showed very good agreement with mapped landslides at each study region. Previous quasi-dynamic model predictions of Nepal’s hazardous areas during extreme rainfall events were enhanced to improve the spatial characterization and provide the timing of hazardous conditions.  相似文献   

Resonance transition periodic orbits in the circular restricted three-body problem     

Hanlun Lei  Bo Xu 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2018,363(4):70

This work studies a special type of cislunar periodic orbits in the circular restricted three-body problem called resonance transition periodic orbits, which switch between different resonances and revolve about the secondary with multiple loops during one period. In the practical computation, families of multiple periodic orbits are identified first, and then the invariant manifolds emanating from the unstable multiple periodic orbits are taken to generate resonant homoclinic connections, which are used to determine the initial guesses for computing the desired periodic orbits by means of multiple-shooting scheme. The obtained periodic orbits have potential applications for the missions requiring long-term continuous observation of the secondary and tour missions in a multi-body environment.  相似文献   

On the Performance of Multi-Instrument Solar Flare Observations During Solar Cycle 24     

Ryan O. Milligan 《Solar physics》2018,293(2):18

The current fleet of space-based solar observatories offers us a wealth of opportunities to study solar flares over a range of wavelengths. Significant advances in our understanding of flare physics often come from coordinated observations between multiple instruments. Consequently, considerable efforts have been, and continue to be, made to coordinate observations among instruments (e.g. through the Max Millennium Program of Solar Flare Research). However, there has been no study to date that quantifies how many flares have been observed by combinations of various instruments. Here we describe a technique that retrospectively searches archival databases for flares jointly observed by the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI), Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/EUV Variability Experiment (EVE – Multiple EUV Grating Spectrograph (MEGS)-A and -B, Hinode/(EUV Imaging Spectrometer, Solar Optical Telescope, and X-Ray Telescope), and Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS). Out of the 6953 flares of GOES magnitude C1 or greater that we consider over the 6.5 years after the launch of SDO, 40 have been observed by 6 or more instruments simultaneously. Using each instrument’s individual rate of success in observing flares, we show that the numbers of flares co-observed by 3 or more instruments are higher than the number expected under the assumption that the instruments operated independently of one another. In particular, the number of flares observed by larger numbers of instruments is much higher than expected. Our study illustrates that these missions often acted in cooperation, or at least had aligned goals. We also provide details on an interactive widget (Solar Flare Finder), now available in SSWIDL, which allows a user to search for flaring events that have been observed by a chosen set of instruments. This provides access to a broader range of events in order to answer specific science questions. The difficulty in scheduling coordinated observations for solar-flare research is discussed with respect to instruments projected to begin operations during Solar Cycle 25, such as the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope, Solar Orbiter, and Parker Solar Probe.  相似文献   

Hydrological Processes in the Huaihe River Basin,China: Seasonal Variations,Causes and Implications     

Peng Sun  Yuyan Sun  Qiang Zhang  Rui Yao 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2018,28(4):636-653

Understanding streamflow changes in terms of trends and periodicities and relevant causes is the first step into scientific management of water resources in a changing environment. In this study, monthly streamflow variations were analyzed using Modified Mann-Kendall(MM-K) trend test and Continuous Wavelet Transform(CWT) methods at 9 hydrological stations in the Huaihe River Basin. It was found that: 1) streamflow mainly occurs during May to September, accounting for 70.4% of the annual total streamflowamount with Cv values between 0.16–0.85 and extremum ratio values between 1.70–23.90; 2) decreased streamflow can be observed in the Huaihe River Basin and significant decreased streamflow can be detected during April and May, which should be the results of precipitation change and increased irrigation demand; 3) significant periods of 2–4 yr were detected during the 1960 s, the 1980 s and the 2000 s. Different periods were found at stations concentrated within certain regions implying periods of streamflow were caused by different influencing factors for specific regions; 4) Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) has the most significant impacts on monthly streamflow mainly during June. Besides, Southern Oscillation Index(SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and the Ni?o3.4 Sea Surface Temperature(Ni?o3.4) have impacts on monthly streamflow with three months lags, and was less significant in time lag of six months. Identification of critical climatic factors having impacts on streamflow changes can help to predict monthly streamflow changes using climatic factors as explanatory variables. These findings were well corroborated by results concerning impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) regimes on precipitation events across the Huaihe River Basin. The results of this study can provide theoretical background for basin-scale management of water resources and agricultural irrigation.  相似文献   

Tourism resource assessment and spatial analysis of wine tourism development: a case study of the eastern foothills of China’s Helan Mountains   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Lei Wang  Ling-en Wang  He Zhu  Jing Lin 《山地科学学报》2018,15(3):645-656

The reasonable development and utilization of mountainous regions closely relates to local economic development and ecological security. The wine production region in the eastern foothills of the Helan Mountains in Ningxia, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, with its excellent terroir, is emerging as one of China’s three major geographical attractions. Based on surveys of tourism resources and spatial analysis for this wine producing region, we propose a highly representative and practicable path for wine tourism development. Based on China’s national standard in Classification, Investigation and Evaluation of Tourism Resources (GB/T 18972-2003), which recommended the types and grades of tourism resources in one area, we conduct an analysis of resource characteristics and the current state of development. Using ArcGIS software, spatial autocorrelation analysis, average nearest neighbor analysis, as well as clustering and outlier analysis, we are able to derive the spatial distribution characteristics of tourism resources. Our survey showed that tourism resources in this area are relatively abundant and have good quality and clear combination advantages. Nonetheless, there are resources shortage for wine tourism and poor integration of wine production with the tourism industry. Regarding the spatial distribution of resources, we revealed the current states of and issues surrounding regions with concentrated resources, as well as characteristics of this clustering. Finally, we proposed a development path for wine tourism in this region based on the five dimensions of management mode, industrial path, product development, spatial optimization, and market development.  相似文献   

Stabilization versus decomposition in alpine ecosystems of the Northwestern Caucasus: The results of a tea bag burial experiment     

Tatiana G. Elumeeva  Vladimir G. Onipchenko  Asem A. Akhmetzhanova  Mikhail I. Makarov  Joost A. Keuskamp 《山地科学学报》2018,15(8):1633-1641

Mountainous areas exhibit highly variable decomposition rates as a result of strong local differences in climate and vegetation type. This paper describes the effect of these factors on two major determinants of the local carbon cycle: litter decomposition and carbon stabilization. In order to adequately reflect local heterogeneity, we have sampled 12 typical plant communities of the Russian Caucasus. In order to minimize confounding effects and encourage comparative studies, we have adapted the widely used tea bag index (TBI) that is typically used in areas with low decomposition. By incubating standardized tea litter for a year, we investigated whether (1) initial litter decomposition rate (k) is negatively correlated with litter stabilization (S) and (2) whether k or S exhibit correlations with altitude and other environmental conditions. Our results show that S and k are not correlated. Altitude, pH, and water content significantly influenced the stabilization factor S, while soil-freezing had no influence. In contrast, none of these factors predicted the decomposition rate k. Based on our data, we argue that collection of decomposition rates alone, as is now common practice, is not sufficient to understand carbon input to soils and can potentially lead to misleading results. Our data on community-specific decomposition and stabilization rates further constrain estimates of litter accumulation in subalpine communities and the potential effects of climate change.  相似文献